Works in Progress:

1. Judging for Development. The Role of Judiciaries in Escaping from the Middle Income Trap. Co-authors: L. Bruszt (Central European University) and L. Lundstedt (European University Institute).

2. Foreign Trade Sophistication in Eastern and Central Europe. Co-author: L. Bruszt (Central European University).

3. The Macroeconomic Effects of Pension Reforms. Co-authors: D. Baksa (Central European University and Hungarian Academy of Sciences)H. Basso (Bank of Spain), M. Constantinescu (Bank of Lithuania), P. Jacquinot (European Central Bank), C. Nerlich (European Central Bank), and L. Wemans (Bank of Portugal).
PresentedWorkshop on Fiscal Policy and Ageing of Fiskalrat (Austrian Fiscal Advisory Council), Vienna, Oct 2017 (co-author, upcoming) | Bank of Portugal (ESCB) Public Finance Workshop on Fiscal-Structural Reforms, Lisbon, July 2017 (co-author)

4. Monetary Policy Transmission with AgingCo-author: D. Baksa (Central European University and Hungarian Academy of Sciences).
Presented: Central European University, Budapest, Sept 2017 (co-author) | Bank of Lithuania, Vilnius, Aug 2017 (co-author) | Bank of Lithuania, Vilnius, July 2017 (co-author)

5. Labor Market Reforms and Informality in Peru. Co-authors: F. Roch (International Monetary Fund), and P. Rodriguez (International Monetary Fund).
Presented: WHD Seminar of the International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, Oct 2017 (co-author, upcoming)

6. Policies to Reduce Informality in the Argentine Labor Market. Co-authors: J. I. Canales Kriljenko (International Monetary Fund), and P. Dudine (International Monetary Fund).
Presented: WHD Seminar of the International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, Oct 2017 (co-author, upcoming) | WHD Seminar of the International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, July 2017 (co-author)

Working Papers:

1. Structural Reform Packages, Sequencing, and the Informal Economy. Co-author: M. Saxegaard (International Monetary Fund). IMF Working Paper 17/125, May 2017; also IMF Research Bulletin, June 2017, Volume 18, Number 2. (First version uploaded: October 2014)
Presented: SPR Seminar of the International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, Jan 2017 | RES-SPR Seminar Series: Jobs, Growth, Structural Reforms of the International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, Jan 2017 | 40 Simposio de la Asociación Española de Economía (Spanish Economic Association, SAEe), Girona, Dec 2015 | International Conference on Institutions, Reforms and Economic Development, Beijing, Sept 2015 | 4th Annual Lithuanian Conference on Economic Research, Kaunas, Aug 2015 | 4th Shadow Conference, Exeter, July 2015 | 2014 Conference of the Hungarian Society of Economists, Budapest, Dec 2014 | The Rimini Conference in Economics and Finance, Rimini, June 2014 | Spring Meeting of Young Economists, Vienna, Apr 2014 | European University Institute, Firenze, Nov 2013 | AFR Growth and Debt Network Seminar of the International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, Sept 2013

2. Aging, Informality and Public Policies in a Small Open-EconomyCo-authors: D. Baksa (Central European University and Hungarian Academy of Sciencesand M. Constantinescu (Bank of Lithuania). Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series No 2/2016, October 2016. (First version uploaded: October 2016)
Abstract: We extend OGRE, the overlapping generation model developed by Baksa and Munkacsi (2016) by adding openness. We then employ the model to explore how the macroeconomic effects of aging, assumed to manifest itself as a decrease in the mortality rate, can be counteracted through public policies. The extended version inherits the previous modeling features of OGRE allowing us to also account for the impact openness has on the effectiveness of the considered policies.
Keywords: population aging, public pension reforms, pay-as-you-go, fully funded, shadow economy, informal employment, small open-economy, overlapping generations
JEL codes: E24, E26, F41, H55, J11, J46
Presented: SPR Seminar of the International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, Jan 2017 | European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, November 2016 (invited) | Bank of Lithuania, Vilnius, Sept 2016 | 5th Annual Lithuanian Conference on Economic Research, Vilnius, June 2016 | Bank of Lithuania, Vilnius, May 2016

3. Aging, (Pension) Reforms and the Shadow Economy in Southern Europe. Co-author: D. Baksa (Central European University and Hungarian Academy of Sciences). Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series No 32/2016, August 2016. (First version uploaded: October 2015)
Abstract: Southern Europe is currently experiencing a double-whammy: high levels of government debt coupled with a rapidly aging population. Thus, the consolidation of (pension) budgets seems inevitable. In this paper we examine the short- and long-run macroeconomic effects of public old-age pension reforms and other fiscal policies under conditions of population aging. To do so, we calibrate OGRE, a New Keynesian model with overlapping generations, unemployment and an underground sector to match annual data on Portugal and Spain. Our main finding is that a retirement-age increase is the least harmful policy with respect to long-run output. However, we raise some doubts about the feasibility of implementing this policy.
Keywords: population aging, public old-age pension reforms, pay-as-you-go, fully funded, shadow economy, informal employment, government debt, New Keynesian model, overlapping generations, demography, unemployment, retirement age

JEL codes: E24, E26, H55, J11, J46

Presented: SPR Seminar of the International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, Jan 2017 | European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Sept 2016 (invited) | Council for Budget Responsibility, Bratislava, Sept 2016 (invited) | 2016 York Fiscal Policy Symposium, York, July 2016 | Bank of Latvia (ESCB) Public Finance Workshop, Riga, June 2016 | 14th International Conference on Pensions, Insurance and Savings, Paris, May 2016 | National Bank of Slovakia, Bratislava, May 2016 (invited) | Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main, Apr 2016 (invited) | 2016 Annual Conference of the Scottish Economic Society, Perth, Apr 2016 | 2016 Annual Conference of the European Public Choice Society, Freiburg, Mar-Apr 2016 | 2016 Annual Conference of the Royal Economic Society, Brighton, Mar 2016 | Bank of Lithuania, Vilnius, Mar 2016 | 2015 Conference of the Hungarian Society of Economists, Budapest, Dec 2015 | 4th International Workshop on the Socio-Economics of Ageing, Lisbon, Oct 2015 | Bank of Lithuania, Vilnius, Oct 2015

4. A Detailed Description of OGRE, the OLG Model. Co-author: D. Baksa (Central European University and Hungarian Academy of Sciences). Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series No 31/2016, August 2016 - submitted for publication (First version uploaded: October 2015)

Working Paper. The OGRE model.

Abstract: In this paper we present the structure of OGRE, a dynamic general equilibrium model with overlapping generations, unemployment and a shadow economy. Based on a parametrized version of the model, we examine the impacts of aging and calculate multipliers of public pension and other fiscal policies. Also, we contrast macroeconomic reactions with pay-as-you-go and fully funded pension plans. Lastly, we highlight the role of unemployment and that of the underground sector in the framework.
Keywords: population aging, public old-age pension reforms, pay-as-you-go, fully funded, shadow economy, informal employment, government debt, New Keynesian model, overlapping generations, demography, unemployment, retirement age

JEL codes: E24, E26, H55, J11, J46

Presented: SPR Seminar of the International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, Jan 2017 | European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Sept 2016 (invited) | Council for Budget Responsibility, Bratislava, Sept 2016 (invited) | 2016 York Fiscal Policy Symposium, York, July 2016 | Bank of Latvia (ESCB) Public Finance Workshop, Riga, June 2016 | 14th International Conference on Pensions, Insurance and Savings, Paris, May 2016 | National Bank of Slovakia, Bratislava, May 2016 (invited) | Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main, Apr 2016 (invited) | 2016 Annual Conference of the Scottish Economic Society, Perth, Apr 2016 | 2016 Annual Conference of the European Public Choice Society, Freiburg, Mar-Apr 2016 | 2016 Annual Conference of the Royal Economic Society, Brighton, Mar 2016 | Bank of Lithuania, Vilnius, Mar 2016 | 2015 Conference of the Hungarian Society of Economists, Budapest, Dec 2015 | 4th International Workshop on the Socio-Economics of Ageing, Lisbon, Oct 2015 | Bank of Lithuania, Vilnius, Oct 2015

5. Fiscal Austerity, Unemployment and Family FirmsDeutsche Bundesbank, Discussion Paper No 06/2015, May 2015. (First version uploaded: October 2014)
Abstract: I calculate unemployment multipliers of fiscal consolidation policies in a standard closed-economy New Keynesian framework with search and matching frictions, and, as an innovation, in the presence of sectoral heterogeneity. Family and non-family firms behave differently in the labor market and are differently managed. This latter assumption is modeled by the inclusion of intangible capital in the family sector. The model is calibrated to match European data on countries with a large percentage of family firms in the labor force. I find that fiscal austerity raises unemployment. Both at peak and cumulatively, unemployment reacts least when the budget is consolidated by increasing the rate of value added tax. At peak, the highest increase in unemployment is induced by a cut in government consumption, but, cumulatively, a hike in employees’ labor income tax is just as costly in terms of employment. There are trade-offs, however, which a policymaker must face, as the value added tax increase results in the steepest decline in consumption. Sectoral heterogeneity is crucial, multipliers of labor income tax policies and government consumption multipliers are usually biased downwards, while the consumption tax multipliers are often biased upwards. Thus, ignoring sectoral heterogeneity might lead to incorrect policy conclusions.
Keywords: fiscal austerity, government consumption, labor income tax, consumption tax, social security contribution, unemployment multiplier, sectoral heterogeneity, family firms, intangible capital

JEL codes: E22, E24, E62, J64

Presented: 16th Annual Conference of Public Economic Theory Association, Luxembourg, July 2015 | 21st Computing in Economics and Finance, Taipei, June 2015 | Young Economists’ Meeting, Brno, May 2015 | Bank of Lithuania, Vilnius, Jan 2015 | Debunking Austerity – Towards Alternative Economic Policy Scenarios, Pisa, Nov 2014 | European University Institute, Firenze, Sept 2014 | Summer Workshop 2014 of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest, Aug 2014 | The Rimini Conference in Economics and Finance, Rimini, June 2014 | Spring Meeting of Young Economists, Vienna, Apr 2014 | Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main, Mar 2014


6. Regulatory Integration and Convergence. Assessing the Economic and Social Consequences of EU Regulatory Integration in the Central and Eastern European CountriesCo-author: L. Bruszt (European University Institute). European Commission FP7 report, April 2015.
Presented: MAXCAP Midterm Conference, Istanbul, Apr 2015

Pre-PhD Works:

1. Unit Values, Unit Labour Costs and Trade Performance in four Central European Countries. Co-authors: G. Bekes, B. Murakozy anG. Oblath (Hungarian Academy of Sciences). Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Discussion Paper 2013-29, September 2013.
Working Paper. (European Commission FP7 project.)

2. Does Fiscal Instability Cause Macroeconomic Instability? Empirical Evidence from OECD CountriesSzazadveg Gazdasagkutato, Working Paper, March 2012.
Working Paper. Also: Tuition Material of the Summer School of Harvard John F. Kennedy School of Government in 2012.

3. Forward-looking Estimation of the Government Statistics using the National Accounts MethodologyHungarian Central Statistical OfficeStatisztikai Szemle, Vol. 88, No. 12, December 2010.
Presented: 28th European Meeting of Statisticians, Piraeus, Aug 2010

4. Export structure and specialisation in Central and Eastern Europe. Külgazdaság, LIII., September-October 2009, pp. 4-28.

5. Who exports in Hungary? Export concentration by corporate size and foreign ownership, and the effect of foreign ownership on export orientation. National Bank of HungaryMNB Bulletin, July 2009.
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Zsuzsa Munkacsi,
May 26, 2017, 6:50 PM
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Zsuzsa Munkacsi,
May 26, 2017, 6:51 PM
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Zsuzsa Munkacsi,
Feb 19, 2016, 11:22 PM